Incremental Insights #16
Investing is Just Answering a Series of Questions: Explaining the Reverse DCF
How the Reverse DCF transforms investing from guesswork into a series of answerable questions.
Investors can gain invaluable insights into potential returns under various scenarios by starting with the current stock price and working backward. Speedwell explores how this approach addresses common valuation pitfalls, provides confidence in investment decisions, and demonstrates its effectiveness using Meta as a case study.
The 'Biggest Man-Made Disaster' Ever?
As 45,000 longshoremen walk off the job at 36 US East and Gulf ports, the first such strike since 1977 threatens to disrupt $2 billion in daily trade.
At its core, this labor dispute goes beyond wages, touching on the contentious issue of automation in the workplace. With potential economic losses of up to $5 billion per day and far-reaching implications for supply chains and inflation, this standoff between the International Longshoremen's Association and port operators highlights broader societal concerns about job security in the face of technological advancement.
- Further Reading: The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger
- Longshoreman versus new technology is not a new. They tried to resist the shift to containerization but it reduced shipping costs so much that containerization steamed rolled the ILA.
The USA vs Visa
Is Visa's dominance in the US debit card market about to face its biggest challenge yet?
The Department of Justice has filed a monopolization suit against the payment giant, alleging anticompetitive practices and pricing tactics that stifle competition. With Visa controlling over 60% of US debit transactions and facing scrutiny from regulators and rivals alike, this case could reshape the payment landscape.
A Severe Case of COVIDIA: A Prognosis for an AI Driven US Equity Market (Podcast)
Is the AI revolution living up to its hype?
Michael Cembalest dissects the phenomenon of "Covidia" - the unprecedented dominance of AI-related stocks, particularly Nvidia, in US markets. He explores Nvidia's extraordinary growth, the optimism surrounding AI transformation, and its impact on market valuations. However, he also raises critical questions about the sustainability of this AI-driven market growth and potential challenges ahead by examining AI adoption rates across industries and comparing current AI infrastructure investments to historical tech cycles.
