Incremental Insights #19

Human Error Is Predictable

Are humans predictably irrational?

New research suggests factor investing exploits systematic errors in forecasting. How expectation biases drive asset prices, explain factor returns, and challenge rational expectations theory.

Intercontinental Exchange: Powering Global Trade

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has evolved from an energy trading startup to a $100 billion financial powerhouse. With impressive revenue growth, a strong competitive moat, and global reach, ICE presents an intriguing opportunity. However, challenges in recent acquisitions and balance sheet concerns warrant a closer look.

The Art of Portfolio Management: Lessons from Tom O'Hara

How a failed musician became a top portfolio manager? Tom O'Hara's journey from Sheffield to Janus Henderson. A masterclass in adaptability and long-term thinking.

Dialogue: Explaining the Reverse DCF (Podcast)

I use both the regular DCF and a reverse DCF when looking at fair value for a stock but I find myself using the reverse DCF more and more because it helps me understand what expectations the market is setting and do I think those expectations are too high or too low.

Why Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt Don’t Actually Own Most of Their Hotels

Incremental Insights #22

Cash! Is Warren Buffett bracing for a market downturn? Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves have swelled to over $300 billion, sparking widespread speculation. However, this massive cash pile might not be purely bearish positioning. Instead, it's likely a consequence of Buffett's extraordinarily successful Apple investment.

Why Chris Hohn & TCI Own GE Aerospace

Chris Hohn runs the multi-billion dollar hedge fund The Children's Investment Fund (TCI). As of 2022, the fund generated annualized returns of over 18%. In 2023, TCI's return soared to 32.7%. TCI achieves these impressive returns by focusing on a select few great businesses with

Incremental Insights #21

The Ten Best Companies in the World From Visa's global dominance to Hermès' luxury legacy, the 10 powerhouse companies reshaping the business landscape and what makes them the 10 best global companies. Pricing Power Everywhere Companies with pricing power have significantly outperformed the broad market over long

From MTV to Mammograms: Unexpected Lessons in Risk Management

In 2020, former MTV VJ Ananda Lewis announced that she had stage 3 breast cancer. She discovered the tumor during a self-examination not through a regularly scheduled mammogram. She revealed after her diagnosis that she had actively avoided mammograms, despite having a family history of breast cancer. Her reason? She